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What Are the Odds of a White Christmas?

white xmas probability
The possibility of a white Christmas on the map. (NOAA climate.gov/NCDC)
This map shows the Bitterroot Valley with a little line of blue down the middle of the valley.

That color gives us about a 50-50 chance of at least an inch of snow on the ground at Christmas this year. However, looking at the immediate vicinity, lots of snow in the hills. And, unless there’s a heatwave, the snow we have will probably be enough to last until December 25.

But, as far as Main Street in Hamilton, it’s a coin toss as to whether you’ll be able to catch snowflakes on your tongue that day.

NOAA developed the map from the historic data from 1981 to 2010. The white areas are pretty locked in for snow at 90 percent and the dark gray areas hover around 10 percent.

To complete the geekiness of the data – the ‘dataset’ uses information from almost 10,000 National Weather Service sites, using 30 years of averages such as daily and monthly ‘Normals’ of temperature, snow, precipitation and more.

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